Thursday, April 8, 2010
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
AUD/USD fell as low as 0.9056 during the European session when USD and JPY broadly strengthened on rising risk aversion and warnings from ratings agencies on UK bank bonds and European sovereign debt. AUD/USD found very good buying at the lows from real money funds and surged as high as 0.9148 in the US morning session when Wall Street moved over 0.5% higher. The fall in commodity prices limited the gains and the resource sector sold off late in the US session to drag Wall Street back to flat. AUD/USD moved back to 0.9125 before closing in NY around 0.9140.
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
0.9170 / 0.9270
R: 0.9270 / 0.9330 / 0.9390
S: 0.9215 / 0.9165 / 0.9115
INTRA-DAY USD/SGD OUTLOOK: 1.3865
1.3830 / 1.3880
R: 1.3880 / 1.3910 / 1.3940
S: 1.3830 / 1.3800 / 1.3770
Monday, November 23, 2009
~ ECB Trichet: Too early as of today to declare the crisis over
~ ECB Weber: Monetary policy was not one of the culprits for causing crisis
~ SNB Roth: Swiss unconventional policy measures worked well
Tuesday, October 20, 2009
Extended correction in US stocks markets and firmer USD/Majors should continue to underpin sentiment in regional pairings in the new week. Profit taking in stocks after recent strong rally could see further corrective falls in Asian currencies too. Strong rebound in the USD/KRW on liquidity control fears to also further impact sentiment. Meanwhile, Asian markets will be bombarded by heavy data from China, Korea and Taiwan this week. Focus will be on China”s Q3 GDP, Sept CPI, retail sales and industrial production on Oct 22. S Korea Q3 GDP is due on Oct 23, also Taiwan”s trade and industrial output data. Malaysia, Hong Kong and Singapore will release CPI data on the Oct 21, 22 and 23 respectively. Bank of Thailand is expected to keep rates steady at 1.25% on Oct 21, while the customs department will announce Sept trade data on the same day. The Malaysian govt will release its 2010 budget on Oct 23. On Monday, Hong Kong will announce unemployment data for July-Sept.
USD/KRW finished at 1164.5 on Friday, after range of 1156-1164.5. BOK intervention and stock losses lifted the pairing off lows. Funds reportedly bought large on break above 1160. USD/KRW swaps shifted heavily towards the left, while KTB slumped on talks S Korea might imposed forex liquidity controls amid volatility in the foreign exchange markets. Foreign investors reportedly dumped a record 21,177 govt bond futures contracts on Friday, worth the equivalent of $2.25 billion. Markets were also spooked by comment from the BOK chief that interest rate hikes will be in big steps when they decide to start raising rates. Hectic short cover extended into overnight dealings. The 1 mth NDF shot through 1170 resistance to 1180 high, before closing at 1172.0-1173.5. High volume was touted. USD/KRW will likely trade 1170-1180 range intraday. Exporters sales could hinder gains.
USD/TWD closed locally at 32.30, after trading a 32.17-32.30 range. Short covering amid fund outflows and continued intervention from the central bank underpinned sentiment. The central bank was suspected to have bought $500 million in support of the USD/TWD on Friday. Taiex finished flat, +0.06%. TWD NDFs traded 32.15-32.22 range overnight, and closed at 32.17-32.21. Only low volume was traded though. Expect the USD/TWD to trade 33.30-33.45 intraday.
USD/SGD stayed bid after scaling the 1.3900 handle on Friday. Rebound in USD/Majors and continued whispers of agent banks bids around 1.3880-1.3890 stalled falls. Stops were further tripped on break above 1.3920 in thin mid-day dealings. The pairing stayed well bid above 1.3910 for the rest of the day. Better than expected non-oil domestic data did not have any positive impact on the SGD, as markets continued to book dollar shorts on surge in the USD/Majors. USD/SGD traded range of 1.3915-1.3987 overnight, before closing at 1.3920. Expect range of 1.39-1.40 on Monday.
USD/THB ended lower on rebound in stocks and reassuring comments from the finance minister, who said that economic fundamentals in Thailand remain sound. He further said the govt sees no need to intervene in the stock markets. Thai SET finished up 3.52% on Friday. USD/THB ended the Far East session at 33.41-33.43, after range of 33.41-33.48. Caution ahead of the weekend kept the 33.40 support intact. In overnight dealings, the USD/THB traded amid 33.38-33.45 range, before finishing at 33.39 in New York. In weekend news, the Thai Princess reported that the King”s health is improving and is not in danger. He need physical therapy, she added, which accounts for his prolonged stay in the hospital. Expect the USD/THB to trade 33.40-33.50 range on Monday, as bullish dollars overseas underpins.
~ USD closed firm though off intraday highs on profit taking and mixed US data. US Oct consumer confidence came in at 69.4 from 735.5 in Sept, and below expectation for 73.5. Industrial production was however stronger at +0.7% vs consensus for +0.2%.
~ The Dow finished below the 10000 mark as investors were disappointed by quarterly results of IBM, BOA and GE. DJI closed down 0.67% to 9995.91, S&P -0.81% to 1087.68 and Nadaq -0.76% to 2156.80.
~ Treasuries closed mixed. Longer dated government debts remain supported by safe haven plays on lower stocks.
~ Oil prices surged to fresh high in year, closing up 99 cents to $78.57 per barrel.
~ Gold finished around $1052.80 per ounce, off mid-week high of 1070.40 on profit taking. Investment demand remains supportive though.
AUD/USD opened in NY at 0.9185 and was immediately hit by a wave of GBP/AUD profit taking and risk aversion after stinky BOA earnings report. Spot dipped to a 0.9123 low but recovered after Fed TIC data showed positive long-term investor flows. US ind. production, also, beat expectations at 0.7%. The recovery in shares was led by oil. With a bullish Australian article (quoting RBA Stevens) floating about, AUD/USD hit a 0.9194 NY high at the London fix. It pulled back on AUD/JPY liquidations then rose again after Trade Minister Crean said that exporters have adjusted to the rise in Aussie and that a high Aussie is good for import prices. AUD/USD finished near 0.9180 and stops lurking above 0.9230. AUD/JPY opened at 83.66 and closed at 83.56. The CRB finished 0.20% higher and oil closed near the highs of the day above $78.00.