Tuesday, February 1, 2011

One-on-One coaching on Forex Trading

As a seasoned professional foreign exchange trader, I endeavour to help individual's who wants to learn how to trade forex to understand the bolts and nuts before diving head-on into the markets.

I do not guarantee nor do I promised that you will make money after learning the basic of foreign exchange trading. Forex trading is both risky and rewarding if you know how to manage your risk. You must be aware of the risks and pitfall and be willing to accept them in order to participate in the forex trading market. Do not trade with money you can't afford to lose. 

If you require one-on-one coaching, please feel free to contact me for an informal chat.

I can be reached at rolandang.csc@gmail.com or whatsapp me at 98172730.

My background:-

2010-2016 - Currency Analyst (IGM Global Markets)
2005-2010 - Fx Advisor (Wealth Management - RBS Bank)
2002-2005 - Trader (UOB Bank)
1996-2001 - Head of Trading (Credit Lyonnais)
1993-1995 - Senior Trader (Bank of Amercia)
1989-1993 - Chief Dealer (Commonwealth Bank)
1987-1989 - Senior Trader (Amro Bank)
1982-1987 - Trader (Natwest Bank)

Thursday, April 8, 2010

Major Currency Overview

EUR/USD was fairly quiet during the European morning session and traded slightly above 1.3400 amid talk of Asian sovereign demand related to Asian CB of home currency intervention during the Asian session. The EUR/USD ten slid lower when the Greece debt crisis continued to intensify on Wednesday - as stressed Greek banks asked the Greek government for 17 BLN EUR of the 28 BLN ER support scheme that was launched in 2008. Greek bank shares fell over 4% while the spread between 10-year Greek sovereign debt and 10-year German bunds blew out to a fresh all time high of 413 BPS. The EUR/USD fell as low as 1.3327 early in the US session and was trading around 1.3336 late in the US session - down 0.45% on the day.

USD/JPY eased form the Asian high around 94.25 to 93.77 during the European morning session and it was trading around 94.00 into the European afternoon session when very negative Greece news sent the EUR/JPY tumbling lower. The EUR/JPY traded as low as 124.50 from the Asian high above 126.00 while the USD/JPY fell through support at 93.50. The JPY was best performing currency on the day was the JPY, as the deteriorating Greece debt crisis prompted fresh EUR/JPY selling and the very successful 10-year Treasury auction sent 10-year Treasury yields tumbling. Late in the US session the JPY was 0.45% higher against the USD and nearly 1.0% higher against the EUR.

AUD/USD Despite a fall in European & US equities and a move lower in oil and copper (down 0.65%) - the AUD and NZD performed remarkably well with the AUD/USD down slightly at 0.9270 late in the US session while the NZD/USD made a small 0.15% gain. The CAD didn"t fare as well as the AUD and NZD and was the worst performing currency on the day with the USD/CAD soaring 0.6% to 1.0060 on heavy short covering after the pairing sold off as low as 0.9977 during the European session when a lot of fresh shorts were taken. There was also large CAD selling on the crosses including CAD/NZD and CAD/AUD.

Asian Market Overview

USD/KRW traded a narrow 1120.6-1123.0 range in Asia Wednesday, last at 1120.5. 1120.5 is the lowest level traded in 12 weeks (since Jan 12) and was set just prior to the close. The BOK were again seen intervening early on above 1121 and were suspected to have tried again in the last hour of trading. Foreign inflows continue although the Kospi traded a narrow range +/- 0.15% for most of the day with Samsung weighing before closing up 0.03%. With the Kospi having made fresh 21.7 month highs on April 6 redemptions continue to slow the move higher. A break below the 2010 low of 1117.5 would see fresh 19 mth lows traded. Feb M2 Money Supply data is scheduled for release at 03.00GMT. Overnight the NDFs opened 1122/1123 and traded an 1122/1124 range on high volume before closing 1123/1124.

USD/HKD extended fall overnight on heavy selling after Hong Kong markets returned from a super long weekend. The pairing hit low of 7.7600 on heavy inflows into equities and upcoming IPOs. USD/HKD ended at 7.7630-7.7635 in Far East but tumbled further to 7.7600 overnight. Stale longs scuttled on the heavy sell-off too, adding to the steep fall yesterday. USD/HKD is last indicated at 7.7607-7.7613, with early trades touted at 7.7608. Range of 7.580-7.7610 is likely intraday. The Hang Seng index finished up +1.82%, the best performer in Asia yesterday.

USD/CNY The PBOC fixed USD/CNY at 6.8259 yesterday, up 1 pip from the OTC close and down 1 pip on Tuesdays mid. The OTC market has traded a tiny 6.8250-58 range so far. Wednesdays mid was the lowest in 10 months but hardly anything to get excited about. The 1-yr NDF is slightly to the right of the NY close; last at 6.6280/20. The Shanghai Composite was last seen down 0.33%. The World Bank today increased its 2010 China GDP forecast from 8.7% to 9.5% and 2011 to 8.7%. Overnight the 1yr NDF traded a 6.6300/50 range before closing at 6.6280/30, largely unchanged from the Asian close yesterday.

USD/TWD traded a 31.561-695 range in Asia Wednesday on strong volume of $1,088mln; last at 31.628 with central bank intervention responsible for pushing it up on the close. It has been estimated the central bank bought $200mio Wednesday. USD/TWD traded at its lowest level in 19.4 months again yesterday. Exporters reportedly continue to sell with fears of lower levels as TWD remains something of a proxy for CNY and revaluation fears remain key at present. In addition the usual foreign investor inflows were evident with the Taiex closing up 0.4%, again making an 11 week high early at 8133.45. March Trade data is scheduled for release at 08.00GMT today. Overnight the NDFs opened 31.43/46 and traded a 31.42/45 range on moderate volume before closing 31.44/48.

USD/SGD finished the Far East session at 1.3953-1.3956, after intraday range of 1.3945-1.3967. Traders cover shorts in afternoon trades after talk of suspected agent bids below 1.3950. Profit taking in the USD/MYR off 3.1930 intraday lows spilled over into SGD sentiment too. The MAS announced yesterday they will issue monetary policy statement on April 14 at 0000 GMT. The trade and industry ministry will also release Q1 GDP data at the same time. Market sentiment remain mixed on whether the MAS will stay neutral or allow an appreciation. In overnight dealings, USD/SGD was mostly contained amid tight 1.3950-1.3965 levels, albeit still good selling interests. Comments from US Senator Shumer that he believed that China will only respond to tough US action on Yuan and not more talk sent the USD/SGD down to the Asian low at 1.3942. Late buying ahead of the New York close (agents suspected again?) drove the USD/SGD to 1.3972 high. USD/SGD closed at 1.3964. Expect range trades amid 1.3950-1.3980 intraday, with doside likely to remain protected by intervention fears. Expected stocks fall, short cover in USD/MYR and offered EUR will likely add to support too.

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Asian Currency Overview

USD/KRW traded a tight 1132.5-1136.8 range in Asia yesterday; last at 1134.5. The pair opened on its low but BOK bidding interest prompted modest short covering. Pair traded above 1136 before closing mid range at 1134.5 with traders saying the market is awash with gamma. Option players report a lot of selling of short dated Won calls around the 1120 area although some short covering noted of an 1125 strike in the one week. All up market the market believes that whilst the risk remains on the downside, it will be a slow grind lower. The Kospi closed flat. Overnight the implieds traded an 1135-1139 range on high volume before closing in NY at 1135/1136.

USD/TWD traded a broad 31.824-98 range in Asia yesterday on moderate volume of $575mln; last at 31.85. Equity inflows continue at a strong rate keeping pressure firmly on the downside in USD/TWD. Option players continue to report activity in RKOs as a proxy to Yuan appreciation. USD/TWD continues to grind away at the downside with offshore sellers the main drivers. Last nights trade numbers came in strong but within consensus; analysts warn that seasonal factors (read Lunar New Year) make January and February numbers unreliable. The Taiex closed up 0.1%. The only recorded trade through the implieds overnight was at 31.71; the 1-mth was last quoted in NY at 31.70/73. 

USD/CNY The PBOC fixed USD/CNY at 6.8265, down one pip from yesterdays fix. The OTC market has traded a tiny 6.8262-67 range. The 1-yr NDF last at 6.6400/30 unchanged from the previous NY close. The Shanghai Composite closed up 0.5%. Speculation of a one-ff revaluation continues to wane with the market somewhat in tune to the plethora of official comments over Yuan policy and believe that the PBOC will revert to gradual appreciation some time in Q2. Option wise players continue to report activity in the 2-3 month tenors however activity remains rather slow. China"s bevy of data releases start today with the trade numbers - CPI, retail sales et al are slated for release tomorrow (Thursday). Overnight the 1-yr dealt a 6.6380-6.6430 range before closing in NY at 6.6380/20.

USD/HKD remained confined to a 7.7583/14 range yesterday with the pair initially under pressure on speculation of the potential Yuan appreciation. A late rally above 7.76 on risk aversion was short lived with prices quickly reclaiming the 7.7590 handle. The Hang Seng closed up 0.05% with foreign inflows seeing weighing on USD/HKD. 

USD/SGD traded a modest 1.3990-1.4020 range in Asia yesterday; last at 1.4005. The pair was unable to make any ground on the downside with talk of MAS agent bids again supporting the pair below 1.40. The local Straits Times bourse closed up 0.18%. Overnight the range was extended to 1.3982 on the downside before closing in NY at 1.4000 with late buying right on the NY close very noticeable (again).

Major Currency Overview

EUR/USD fell sharply during the European session due to negative comments from Fitch on European government debt; a rise in risk aversion and a sharp fall in Cable following weak UK data. EUR/USD fell to 1.3535 when stops below 1.3550 were triggered. EUR/USD recovered to 1.3600 during the US session on talk of sovereign buying and a rise in investor risk appetite sparked by a buoyant Wall Street. The rise in investor risk appetite helped push EUR/JPY back to 122.45 from the European low at 121.45. 

USD/JPY The JPY strengthened during the European session due to a rise in risk aversion and talk of heavy Japanese repatriation flows. EUR/JPY fell as low as 121.45 while USD/JPY dipped to 89.60 from Monday's close at 90.25. USD/JPY recovered during the US afternoon session when a small rise on Wall Street encouraged investor risk appetite and supported risk currencies. USD/JPY traded back to 90.00 in the afternoon session - but the JPY was still 0.3% higher against the USD and made a 0.5% gain against the EUR on the day.

GBP/USD continued to fall during the European session following the Moody's- UK banks story; a poll showing the Labour and the Tories were neck and neck and worse than expected UK trade data. GBP/USD fell as low as 1.4936. GBP/USD recovered late NY when investor risk appetite rebounded and was trading around 1.4985 late in the US session. Despite the modest rebound the GBP was still down 0.55% on the day while GBP fell 0.80% against the JPY.

AUD/USD fell as low as 0.9056 during the European session when USD and JPY broadly strengthened on rising risk aversion and warnings from ratings agencies on UK bank bonds and European sovereign debt. AUD/USD found very good buying at the lows from real money funds and surged as high as 0.9148 in the US morning session when Wall Street moved over 0.5% higher. The fall in commodity prices limited the gains and the resource sector sold off late in the US session to drag Wall Street back to flat. AUD/USD moved back to 0.9125 before closing in NY around 0.9140.

Tuesday, November 24, 2009


AUD/USD rebounded from 0.9060 to extend further rally to 0.9278 in early US session on heavy short-covering and fresh buying sparked by stronger equities and commodities.  While more short-covering could still be seen, upside is expected to be limited below 0.9404 previous high resistance.  Any fall below 0.9173 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside.  Further break of 0.9060 will bring fall resumption to 0.8915 support next.
Range Forecast Today
0.9170 / 0.9270

R: 0.9270 / 0.9330 / 0.9390
S: 0.9215 / 0.9165 / 0.9115


USD/SGD closed Asia trading at 1.3855, after heavy selling from early morning high at 1.3902.  Selling pressure on fresh surge in the EUR/USD was halted above the 1.3850 support level on fear of MAS intervention.  The USD/SGD remains heavy into overnight trading, as the EUR/USD continued its ascend towards the 1.50 handle.  Expect rallies to be capped yet again.  USD/SGD ended at 1.3856 overnight, after range of 1.3835-1.3864. 

Range Forecast Today
1.3830 / 1.3880

R: 1.3880 / 1.3910 / 1.3940
S: 1.3830 / 1.3800 / 1.3770

Monday, November 23, 2009

Asian Currency Outlook

USD/KRW traded a moderate 1158.6-1168.5 range in Asia on Friday; last at 1159. USD was in demand early (on the back of the regulator announcing that they would allow naked short selling of bonds) with the pair racing to 1168. Once the topside stops had been done the pair baulked at the further topside attempts given the layers of offers around 1170. The pair drifted back below 1160 in the afternoon session in a quiet end to the week. The Kospi for its part closed flat. On Friday night the implieds traded an 1163-1166 range on high volume before closing in NY at 1161/1163.
USD/TWD traded an elevated 32.30-32.379 range in Asia on Friday; last at 32.35 on strong volume of $1.033mln. Traders say the CBRC remains active trying to keep the pair above 32.30 and help squeeze out more shorts replicating US Dollar short covering witnessed in the majors. Meanwhile the Taiex closed down 0.99%. On Friday night the implieds traded a 32.30-34 range on moderate volume before closing in NY at 32.31/34.
USD/SGD was pressured early by a European bank but met good bidding above 1.3880. The pair rallied to 1.3912 then collapsed in a heap as EUR/USD raced above 1.4900 again. Weak longs fled but buyers protecting at 1.3870 still. The pair had another shot above 1.39 during the offshore session hitting a high of 1.3918 before closing in NY just 2 pips lower from its open at 1.3888; overall range for Friday 1.3869-1.3918. October inflation is awaited on Monday. A DJ poll said inflation would have fallen by 0.5%y/y in Oct, from -0.4%y/y in Sept. On a monthly basis, CPI is likely to rise 0.7% vs -0.1%m/m in Sept.

Market Overview

~ China NDRC Zhang: to continue moderately loose monetary policy, continue active fiscal policy, recent Sino-US trade friction regrettable
~ ECB Trichet: Too early as of today to declare the crisis over
~ ECB Weber: Monetary policy was not one of the culprits for causing crisis
~ SNB Roth: Swiss unconventional policy measures worked well

EUR/USD quietly consolidated between 1.4865/1.4905 for most of the European morning session before coming under heavy pressure once the US market arrived. EUR/USD was weighed down by broad USD strength and weak equity markets and the market took the opportunity to knock out the lower leg of a 1.4800/1.51 DNT option. EUR/USD bounced from the 1.4800 level amid talk of Asian sovereign demand and the pairing received a further boost by comments from ECB officials indicating that exit strategies will be enacted in 2010. The ECB did announce some changes to the collateral criteria for the March auction that will be less accommodating to the banks participating. EUR/USD closed around 1.4865.
AUD/USD fell another 0.5% on Friday and ended the week completing a key outside week reversal lower. Funds and investors in general are paring risk positions ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday and long AUD has been a popular investor strategy over the last few months. Hedge and model funds have been the main sellers - but the move lower has been cushioned by sporadic real money and sovereign name buying. AUD/USD closed around 0.9145.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Asian Currency Outlook

Extended correction in US stocks markets and firmer USD/Majors should continue to underpin sentiment in regional pairings in the new week. Profit taking in stocks after recent strong rally could see further corrective falls in Asian currencies too. Strong rebound in the USD/KRW on liquidity control fears to also further impact sentiment. Meanwhile, Asian markets will be bombarded by heavy data from China, Korea and Taiwan this week. Focus will be on China”s Q3 GDP, Sept CPI, retail sales and industrial production on Oct 22. S Korea Q3 GDP is due on Oct 23, also Taiwan”s trade and industrial output data. Malaysia, Hong Kong and Singapore will release CPI data on the Oct 21, 22 and 23 respectively. Bank of Thailand is expected to keep rates steady at 1.25% on Oct 21, while the customs department will announce Sept trade data on the same day. The Malaysian govt will release its 2010 budget on Oct 23. On Monday, Hong Kong will announce unemployment data for July-Sept.

USD/KRW finished at 1164.5 on Friday, after range of 1156-1164.5. BOK intervention and stock losses lifted the pairing off lows. Funds reportedly bought large on break above 1160. USD/KRW swaps shifted heavily towards the left, while KTB slumped on talks S Korea might imposed forex liquidity controls amid volatility in the foreign exchange markets. Foreign investors reportedly dumped a record 21,177 govt bond futures contracts on Friday, worth the equivalent of $2.25 billion. Markets were also spooked by comment from the BOK chief that interest rate hikes will be in big steps when they decide to start raising rates. Hectic short cover extended into overnight dealings. The 1 mth NDF shot through 1170 resistance to 1180 high, before closing at 1172.0-1173.5. High volume was touted. USD/KRW will likely trade 1170-1180 range intraday. Exporters sales could hinder gains.

USD/TWD closed locally at 32.30, after trading a 32.17-32.30 range. Short covering amid fund outflows and continued intervention from the central bank underpinned sentiment. The central bank was suspected to have bought $500 million in support of the USD/TWD on Friday. Taiex finished flat, +0.06%. TWD NDFs traded 32.15-32.22 range overnight, and closed at 32.17-32.21. Only low volume was traded though. Expect the USD/TWD to trade 33.30-33.45 intraday.

USD/SGD stayed bid after scaling the 1.3900 handle on Friday. Rebound in USD/Majors and continued whispers of agent banks bids around 1.3880-1.3890 stalled falls. Stops were further tripped on break above 1.3920 in thin mid-day dealings. The pairing stayed well bid above 1.3910 for the rest of the day. Better than expected non-oil domestic data did not have any positive impact on the SGD, as markets continued to book dollar shorts on surge in the USD/Majors. USD/SGD traded range of 1.3915-1.3987 overnight, before closing at 1.3920. Expect range of 1.39-1.40 on Monday.

USD/THB ended lower on rebound in stocks and reassuring comments from the finance minister, who said that economic fundamentals in Thailand remain sound. He further said the govt sees no need to intervene in the stock markets. Thai SET finished up 3.52% on Friday. USD/THB ended the Far East session at 33.41-33.43, after range of 33.41-33.48. Caution ahead of the weekend kept the 33.40 support intact. In overnight dealings, the USD/THB traded amid 33.38-33.45 range, before finishing at 33.39 in New York. In weekend news, the Thai Princess reported that the King”s health is improving and is not in danger. He need physical therapy, she added, which accounts for his prolonged stay in the hospital. Expect the USD/THB to trade 33.40-33.50 range on Monday, as bullish dollars overseas underpins.

Market Overview

~ USD closed firm though off intraday highs on profit taking and mixed US data. US Oct consumer confidence came in at 69.4 from 735.5 in Sept, and below expectation for 73.5. Industrial production was however stronger at +0.7% vs consensus for +0.2%.
~ The Dow finished below the 10000 mark as investors were disappointed by quarterly results of IBM, BOA and GE. DJI closed down 0.67% to 9995.91, S&P -0.81% to 1087.68 and Nadaq -0.76% to 2156.80.
~ Treasuries closed mixed. Longer dated government debts remain supported by safe haven plays on lower stocks.
~ Oil prices surged to fresh high in year, closing up 99 cents to $78.57 per barrel.
~ Gold finished around $1052.80 per ounce, off mid-week high of 1070.40 on profit taking. Investment demand remains supportive though.

EUR/USD opened New York around 1.4910 on the rebound from 1.4885 European lows but succumbed to early sales as NY hedge funds liquidated even more long EUR/GBP positions. EUR/GBP opened around 0.9045, kissed 55 then slumped to 0.9090, dragging EUR/USD lower, with a test of previous day"s lows which stalled just above at 1.4845. There was talk of Asian central banks playing 1.4850-1.4950 ranges to replenish longs on dips in order to defend 1.4975 and 1.5000 option barriers. EUR/USD subsequently traded 1.4875-15 range through close.

AUD/USD opened in NY at 0.9185 and was immediately hit by a wave of GBP/AUD profit taking and risk aversion after stinky BOA earnings report. Spot dipped to a 0.9123 low but recovered after Fed TIC data showed positive long-term investor flows. US ind. production, also, beat expectations at 0.7%. The recovery in shares was led by oil. With a bullish Australian article (quoting RBA Stevens) floating about, AUD/USD hit a 0.9194 NY high at the London fix. It pulled back on AUD/JPY liquidations then rose again after Trade Minister Crean said that exporters have adjusted to the rise in Aussie and that a high Aussie is good for import prices. AUD/USD finished near 0.9180 and stops lurking above 0.9230. AUD/JPY opened at 83.66 and closed at 83.56. The CRB finished 0.20% higher and oil closed near the highs of the day above $78.00.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Market Overview

USD/SGD traded a tight 1.3962-1.3985 range in Asia yesterday; last at 1.3967 slightly down from its previous NY close. It has been another session of trying to track EUR/USD with a brief move above 1.48 coinciding with the USD/SGD low. When EUR/USD eased, USD/SGD recovered instep. In the afternoon session USD/SGD has remained heavy regardless of Euro moves. Singapore extended its job credit scheme for a further 6-mths. Overnight USD/SGD traded up to 1.3987 when Wall Street was trading in the red only to fall precipitously to 1.3947 after the Intel earnings/outlook was released after the market closed.

EUR/USD ranged between 1.4750 and 1.4800 for much of the Asian and European morning before surging higher when the US market started to arrive. There was talk of sovereign names buying the dip and then those names stepped up to buy above 1.4800 and the market successfully knocked out a 1.4850 option barrier to a high of 1.4875. EUR/USD then retreated to 1.4800 on profit taking. Sovereign buying once again emerged and EUR/USD traded back to 1.4860 only to get knocked back to 1.4800 again when Wall Street slipped into the red. EUR/USD popped back to 1.4850 when sovereign names bought once again and Intel beat expectations.

AUD/USD traded up to 0.9127 at one stage when the USD fell across the board and oil & gold surged higher. AUD/USD fell back to 0.9050 when Wall Street fell into the red - but moved back to 0.9090 into the close when Intel reported better than expected outlook for Q4 in the after-hours.

Thursday, October 8, 2009

Friday, October 2, 2009

Asean Currency Overview

USD/SGD ended the Asian session at 1.4109, after intraday range of 1.4062-1.4131. Strong Asian bids were countered by very aggressive dollar selling pressure early. However, recovery in the USD/KRW amid heavy BOK intervention ( touted near to $2 bln) and sell-off in the EUR/USD to sub 1.4600 support lifted the USD/SGD above the 1.4100 handle. The pairing stayed firm in overnight dealings. Weak US data set off stocks dumping and risk cutting, which lifted the USD/SGD to 1.4155 high overnight. US manufacturing activity eased to 52.6 in Sept from 52.9 in Aug, and below market expectation for a reading of 54. New claims for jobless benefits rose unexpectedly to 551k last week from 534k the previous week, and above market consensus for 530k. US stocks posted their biggest loss in 3 months after the data, which renewed doubts on recovery hopes. USD/SGD ended at 1.4135 in New York, after range of 1.4109-1.4155. Further short squeeze is likely, as Asian stocks are likely to reel on Wall Street”s sell-off. Range of 1.4120-80 is likely intraday.

USD/MYR closed at 3.4640-3.4680 locally yesterday, after a hectic range of 3.4470-3.4700. Heavy selling was reversed quickly amid strong interventions from the BOK and MAS. Fixing demands added to buy backs in the USD/MYR. MYR NDFs traded 3.4600-3.4700 overnight on low volume. It finished at 3.4700-3.4750. USD/MYR will likely trade 3.4700-3.4850 intraday, with markets to remain choppy on renewed risk aversion.

USD/IDR ended the local session at 9600-9630, after intraday range of 9615-9647. Profit taking and good bidding interests from state banks provided support for the pairing. IDR NDFs traded 9625-9660 range overnight, and closed at 9650-9670. Should see fresh buying above 9650 today on expected broad base stock losses and risk aversion. However, expect BI to cap rallies to 9700 intraday.

USD/PHP closed at 47.05, after intraday range of 47.03-47.30. The pairing see-sawed in line with choppy USD/Majors. Bullish outlook from the IMF on higher BOP surplus and strong OFW inflows sent the pairing lower in late afternoon dealings. BSP was suspected to have bought USD/PHP to slow the pairing”s fall along the way. PHP NDFs traded 47.05-47.20 range overnight on low volume. It ended at 47.20-47.30. Expect the USD/PHP to open around 47.10, with range of 47.10-30 likely intraday.

USD/THB bounced back initially on good buying from German and short covering interests yesterday. The pairing hit high of 33.50, after good support from the central bank at the 33.40 level. It closed at 33.47 as markets remained bearish the dollars. Heavy selling in the offshore USD/THB forwards also weighed on the spot. However, heavy short covering in the dollars overnight has lifted the USD/THB back above 33.50. The pairing closed at 33.52 in New York, after range of 33.48-33.52. Could see further squeeze higher to 33.60 in intraday trades, as markets are seen caught short. On the political front, Thaksin supporters, the red shirted United Front for Democracy will stage another demonstration on Oct 17 to demand that PM Abhsit submit the petition calling for a royal pardon for the fugitive Thaksin.

Asian Currency Overview

USD/KRW traded a massive 1166.6-1185 range in Asia yesterday after opening mid-range at 1175; closed 1178.3 The pair witnessed a savage sell-off on the open plummeting through 1270 but the BOK was having none of it and intervened aggressively. The trade data was much better than expected with the surplus a whopping $5.7bln whilst exports although down for September are expected to return to positive territory next month. After lunch the BOK "shunted" the pair above 1180 spiking to 1185 before settling around 1180. The Kospi closed down 1.7%; foreign investors were net sellers of $220mln worth of local stocks. Overnight the implieds traded an 1173-1186 range on high volume before closing in NY at 1185/87. 

USD/TWD traded a 31.995-32.319 range in Asia yesterday on massive volume of $2.3bln. The pair was initially taken off its lows by aggressive buying of US Dollars from the local central bank. The implieds had suggested an OTC open around the figure but the CBRC was intent on ensuring the pair did not drop below 32.00. The CBRC has tried to play down his intervention efforts in the local media with the usual mantra that the TWD exchange rate is determined by market forces etc. In the last 30 minutes of trade the pair dipped from around 32.14 to post an intraday low of 31.995 before closing in Asia spiking to 31.319. This late in the day shenanigans appears based on an option trigger at 32.00 even before the CBRC stepped in to post a ridiculous close. The local Taiex bourse closed up 0.48%. Overnight the implieds traded a 31.85-05 range on moderate volume before closing in NY at 32.03-08.

USD/CNY Chinese financial markets are closed until October 8th. The official September PMI came in at 54.3 vs. 54.0 in August. The 1-yr NDF last in Asia at 6.6870/20 up slightly from its NY close. Overnight the 1-yr NDF traded a 6.6900-6.6960 before closing in NY at 6.6930/80.

USD/HKD markets to reopen after a holiday yesterday. Expect range of 7.7500-05 to hold, as bullish dollars elsewhere should have little impact on the HKD amid still strong IPO related inflows. Expected stock losses today should keep the USD/HKD well supported too. USD/HKD traded 7.7500-03 range overnight, and closed at 7.7500.

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Market Overview

EUR/USD climbed steadily during the European session after falling to a low of 1.4565 in Asia buoyed by the German election result and the strong equity markets. The price stalled at 1.4721 in NY and slipped back to trade around 1.4600 into the close, as the Dow closed off the highs in late trading and traders continued to sell into strength, reducing their long positions.

AUD/USD was the star performer overnight surging from a low at 0.8585 in Asia to test 0.8757 in NY led by increased investor risk appetite and spurred by short covering and perhaps a major flow. AUD/USD recorded a bullish outside reversal day which brings the primary up trend back into focus. AUD/NZD climbed from 1.1985 yesterday to close around 1.2175 and the AUD/JPY surged from a low yesterday at 76.53 to close above 78.00

USD/SGD closed firm in Asia at 1.4195 yesterday, after range of 1.4133-1.4224. Corporate and good names selling continued to cap rallies overnight. A big US names were reportedly sellers during the London session after rally failed to cross 1.4204 high. The pair consolidated within 1.4155-1.4196 in NY. USD/SGD closed at 1.4185 in NY, after overnight range of 1.4155-1.4205. Expect a range between 1.4150-1.4250 to hold in near term trade

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Market Overview

EUR/USD traded lower in European session on profit taking amid talk that sovereign names were selling rallies. EUR/USD slipped to 1.4731 at NY opening session when Crude prices fell sharply following surprisingly bearish US government energy inventory data. EUR/USD climbed back to 1.4780 before the FOMC announcement and then soared to a fresh 2009 high at 1.4842 before running into sovereign selling amid talk of a very large 1.4850 option being defended. However, when Wall Street closed from positive to negative 0.85%, the EUR tumbled to 1.4725 into late in the US session.
AUD/USD and NZD/USD had a volatile day led by the latter over the past 24 hours - as stronger than expected NZ GDP sent both currency pairs to fresh 2009 highs.  RBNZ was rumoured to be buying AUD/NZD during London session and the cross rose from 1.2030 to 1.2090 and NZD/USD eased back to 0.7207. Both pairs spiked higher after the FOMC statement with AUD/USD retesting Asian high at 0.8790 before running into heavy option related selling - amid talk of a large barrier at 0.8800. AUD/USD subsequently crashed to a low of 0.8690 in the closing hours of NY trade amid Wall Street negative closing; with NZD/USD following suit going from 0.7281 to 0.7182.

USD/SGD whipsawed overnight and closed at Asian trade at 1.4118, after intraday range of 1.4078-1.4127. Short covering ahead of the FOMC announcement sent the pair higher in early London dealings. However, it ran into fresh selling ahead of 1.4150 strong ressistance, and eased slightly to 1.4125 region.   The USD/SGD ran into another wave of selling after the Fed left rates unchanged and rally in the EUR/USD to 1.4845, pushed the pair down to 1.4078 again. However, retreat in Wall Street and EUR/USD lifted the USD/SGD back above 1.4100. It closed at 1.4135 in New York, after range of 1.4078-1.4117. Extended selling in the EUR/USD during the twilight zone this morning sent the pairing reeling to low of 1.4685, which spilled over into the USD/SGD too. The pairing hit high of 1.4175 as stops were tripped above 1.4150. Expect further choppy dealings amid 1.4150-1.4200 intraday.

Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Market Overview

EUR/USD started trading from lows of 1.4676 as S&P futures were climbing. Early European equities rally triggered stops in EUR/USD through 1.4760 with a Swiss name reportedly the buyers that shot prices just shy of 1.48 barriers. But, the resistance was breached on continued advance in equities and a vulnerable USD pushed prices to a high of 1.4821, short of an options expiry at 1.4825. The EUR/USD spent the rest of the session trading between 1.4770 and 1.4820. GBP/USD was keeping pace with EUR/USD being spurred on by the climb in equities. But, it was EUR/GBP that caught the market's attention. An early rally to 0.9081 stirred dealer reaction with sell recommendations that contributed to the decline down to 0.9028 before settling back above 0.9040 ahead of Wed's BoE minutes. AUD/USD got a boost from firm equities, commodities, and gold to reach 0.8758 from 0.8625.

USD/SGD was trading on a firm footing on the back of overnight dip in US equities and lack of EUR strength, but reversed trend on equity market bounce in the Asian session, which triggered long USD unwinding and EUR rally. The pair retreated towards the 1.4120 area and stabilizes when EUR rallies stalled. Aug CPI data due out at 0500GMT today. Moves in the USD/SGD will probably continue to be dictated by the swings in the EUR and the equity markets. With the FOMC as the main event on Wed followed by the G20 into the end of the week, volatility is expected. MAS is expected to intervene should the SGD strengthen too fast given the rich valuations of the SGD NEER with respect to the policy band. Near-term support is seen at the 1.4100 first ahead of strong technical support at 1.4052.

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Market Overview

AUD/USD fell as low as 0.8544 during the London session when the USD was broadly bid due to the uncertainty created by the trade tiff between China and the US. AUD/USD held steady between 0.8560/90 into US opening and then received a boost from a buoyant Wall Street shrugging of the trade/protectionism concerns. AUD/USD rallied as high as 0.8625 and closed the session just below 0.8620.
EUR/USD fell to a low of 1.4517 during the European session as the USD and JPY benefitted from the rise in risk aversion that was prompted by the news of a growing trade tiff between the US and China. EUR/USD was supported near the lows by reports that Asian central banks were on the bid. Wall Street buoyancy and reported option expiry above 1.4600 pushed the EUR/USD to as high as 1.4652 before drifting back to 1.4620 into the close, well up from the Friday close around 1.4565.
USD/SGD closed Asian trading at 1.4264-66, after ranging between1.4225-72. The pair was trading between the 1.4245-65 range after the run-up in early trades, triggered by retreat in the EUR/USD and selling pressure in JPY crosses. The signs of a positive economic recovery earlier than expected capped rally in the pair though, despite losses in the STI, which closed down 1.54%. USD/SGD resumed downtrend in overnight trades. The USD/SGD traded in a range of 1.4215-1.4267, and finished in New York at 1.4225. Range trade between 1.4210/60 is expected intraday.

Monday, September 7, 2009

Market Overview

AUD/USD opened in New York at 0.8435 but slipped to its 0.8395 low after a jump in the unemployment rate to 9.7%.  Sovereign funds and corporate buying lend support and pushed the pair higher but ran into selling interest around the 0.8460 level. Subsequent rally in shares after ECRI data near London close and stop-loss trigger pushed the AUD/USD through 0.8470/80 and barriers at 0.8500.  Asian Sovereigns were reported selling near 0.8520. GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD hit fresh 2009 lows at 1.9207 and 1.6774, respectively. The CRB closed down 0.47%.
EUR/USD was pushed up to 1.4280 after the US jobs report but gave way to sellers, sliding to a low of 1.4190 ahead of the NYSE open.  Sellers capped subsequent buying interest up to 1.4235 that held until after the London fix, from which point the prices gave way and hit 1.4330 high but fall short of a retest of 1.4350 high from Thur.  The pair drifted lower to the 1.4300 area as traders wound down positions ahead of the long weekend, despite decent stock demand. 
GBP/USD was capped at 1.6365 out of London on the back of fairly strong EUR/GBP demand out of Europe.  French accounts were reported to buy the cross at better levels but nothing came through in the cross play in either leg.  Support for the GBP grew as the pair started to find bids into US payrolls reports which had started to stir up volatility in the market.  However, the GBP/USD remained range-bound between 1.6300 – 1.6400 moving into US midday. 
USD/JPY opened NY at 92.85, but fell to a 92.26 low after US unemployment number. It then surged higher following finance minister comments and a second read of the payrolls number and spiked up to 93.26 before running into selling interest.  The pair settled at 92.85 by the London close but cross buying on an equity/bond allocation, comments about stimulus from BRIC nations, and US news about North Korea nuclear ambitions left USD/JPY at 93.00 by the NY close.

Asian Currency Overview

Overnight rally in stock markets globally should see extension of bullish sentiment in both equities and regional currencies, with China markets expected to lead the pack.  Late announcement on Friday that China’s FX regulator, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, plans to raise single QFII quota to $1 billion from $800 million added to bullish outlook for stocks.

USD/KRW closed at 1241.5, after range of 1239.4-1247.4. Exporters sales pushed the pair lower but pre-weekend short cover and talk of BOK intervention below the 1240 mark lifted prices off its lows. KOSPI closed down 0.29% on profit taking, with foreigners remained net sellers for the 3rd day running. Foreign funds reportedly sold KRW 433.6 billion worth of stocks in the past 3 sessions. BOK meeting on Thursday,  but expect the central bank to keep its rates unchanged at 2.0% for the 7th month in a row. BOK”s outlook on growth and inflation are seen unchanged, hence should see limited impact on dealings.

USD/TWD closed local trading at 32.905, after a 32.845-32.966 range. Exporters and foreign funds sales were neutralized by central bank intervention and oil importers bids.  Central bank presence is expected to continue with a range of 32.80-33.00 seen in near term.  TWD NDFs traded 32.80-32.81 range in New York on moderate volume. It closed at 32.77-32.80.   Taiwan August trade and inflation data are awaited at 0800 GMT on Monday. Exports and imports are likely to remain in contraction on yearly basis, but improved from July as demands from major partners rose. DJ poll sees Aug exports at -29.0%y/y vs -24.40%y/y in July; imports at -37.32%y/y vs -34.10%y/y in July.  Aug CPI is forecast at -0.9%y/y vs -2.33%y/y in July. Typhoon Morakot, which hit Taiwan in early August, is seen pushing up food prices. The central bank is highly expected to kept its benchmark discount rate steady at a record low of 1.25% when it next meet on Sept 24 on rates. 

USD/CNY was fixed at 6.8305 on Friday, slightly lower than Thursday’s fix at 6.8307. USD/CNY slipped below 6.8300 to 6.8297 low in late trading.  Thin and illiquid market, with many banks hitting long USD limit, sent the pair lower and closed at 6.8300.  Expect a slightly lower fix on Monday, but no big impact as the central bank will likely continue to keep the pair within tight range around the 6.8300 pivot. CNY NDFs eased on broad dollar sell-off overnight. The 1 year closed at 6.7800-6.7850, versus the Asian close at 6.7840-6.7880. Meanwhile, PBOC vice governor Su Ning said China needs to study regulatory tools to adjust lending, but did not elaborate on the present situation. He added they need to pay special attention to asset price changes and monitor global capital flows. In others, another PBOC vice governor, Yi Gang, said China will continue to manage its foreign exchange reserves to make them safe and fluid with good returns. 

USD/HKD extended loss to 7.7502 overnight, before closing at 7.7507.  Expectation of huge IPO related inflows in coming weeks weighed on the pair with at least 7 companies touted to have plans to raise some HKD40 billion ($5.2 billion) in Hong Kong IPOs in the next few weeks. The Sinopharm Group kicked off a road show on Friday to raise up to HKD8.73 bln ($1.13 bln) in its Hong Kong IPO. Trading debut is set on Sept 23. The Hang Seng index closed up 2.82% on Friday, boosted by derivatives related buying and news that China will increase its limit for stock investments by foreign funds to $1 bln from $800 mln. 
USD/SGD traded intraday range of 1.4387-1.4422 but closed lower in Asia at 1.4389 on late selling.   Upbeat stocks and bullish economic outlook continue to weigh on the USD/SGD. The pair rally to 1.4414 briefly overnight after the US payrolls data, but failed to follow-through when the EUR/USD dip to 1.4191. However, turnaround in dollar sentiment pushed USD/SGD below the 1.4400 support once again. Selling interest and stop-loss selling pressured the USD/SGD below 1.4380 and to 1.4360 low where agent banks were reported to be buying.  USD/SGD closed at 1.4385, after range of 1.4360-1.4414 overnight. 

USD/MYR attracted little interests ahead of US payrolls data on Friday, while tracking SGD moves.  Importers bids initially provided some support at 3.5280 region, but late selling in the USD/SGD and spike in the EUR/USD pushed it down to 3.5230 at the close. In overnight dealings, MYR NDFs eased further amid increased risk appetite after the US jobs data. 1 mth MYR NDFs traded 3.5220-3.5250 range, down from the open at 3.5280-3.5310. It closed at 3.5225-3.5275. Only low volume was cited though. Expect the USD/MYR to trade 3.5200-3.5300 on Monday. Meanwhile, July trade data is awaited at 1000 GMT. Weak manufacturing demands will likely keep exports and imports both at double digit losses. June exports fell 22.60%y/y, while imports were down 20.8%y/y, with trade surplus at MYR 9.12 bln.

USD/IDR closed onshore trading at 10110-10140, after intraday range of 10120-10145. Local bids provided early support. Fixing demands and German bids added to bidding interests but demand were pushed back by state banks sales. Steady stock and bond markets after the BI left rates steady saw the USD/IDR hobbling a tad lower in afternoon trades. No trades were reported in the IDR NDFs overnight. The 1 mth closed in New York at 10120-10160, down from the open at 10160-10190 level. Elsewhere, Indonesian finance minister Sri Mulyani said they will discuss commodity price volatility at the weekend G20 meet but does not expect any move linked to the removal of fuel subsidies.  She added exit strategies from stimulus policies need to be carefully timed in order not to dent market optimism. 
USD/PHP closed at 48.62, after ranging between 48.60-48.765.  New week inflows expected to weigh on the pair but talk of BSP buying saw initial stall above the 48.70 level. Stops were reportedly triggered below 48.70 in thin trading ahead of the close, and the pair declined to 48.60 low.  No trades were reported in the PHP NDFs overnight. The 1 mth closed at 48.70-48.80, down from the open at 48.77-48.82. The Philippines government announced that Monday will be a holiday to mark the funeral of the leader of a religious group and financial markets will be closed.  On the data front, July exports is due on Thursday. 
USD/THB spiked to 34.08 on Friday on buying from agent banks. Local traders said the bank could be taking advantage of quiet market to push the pair up to help exporters.  However, the move up was very lethargic due to lack of interest as well as some exporter offers at the top. The pair traded in a tight range of 34.07-34.079 overnight, and ended at 34.07 in New York.  Thai FX reserves rose to $127.0 billion on Aug 28 from $125.2 billion on Aug 21 and $123.7 on Aug 14.  The substantial rise is probably seen due to the central bank intervention activities to keep the USD/THB above the 34.00 mark.